Intuitive = Arbitrary?
It starts as an intuitive response that cannot be explained. What follows is seemingly random sequences of reasons to try to justify the response, which most of the time are incoherent. It happens everyday. My boss calls them sweeping statements because my reasons do not have a logical sequence. I have also been constantly reminded to not make sweeping statements, which I am unconscious of doing, but very consious to not make any.
This is one little story. I was working on a cost estimation for a project, and I had to estimate the number of man days it will take to complete the project per year over two years -- it was a long project that could not finish within a year. I was asked how I derived the number of man days for each year and I said that I arbitrarily divided the number of days across the two years. I really didn't know how to answer the question then. I was asked to rework the whole estimate without making arbitrary assumptions.
I consulted my colleagues to learn how they estimated their projects. It still looked arbitrary to me, but I took note of how they made it look otherwise -- they had estimated start dates and end dates and the days correlated with the duration. Few days later, I reworked my number to have a start date and end date, and then I divided the man days based on the number of days between the start date and the end of the year, and start of the year till the end date. "Thanks, that's better."
This is confusing. Wasn't my start date arbitrary too?
Another week went by, and I was asked how I derived my total man day estimate. I replied that it was based on the requirements, scope of work to be done, and my experience with project implementation. I was asked to rework my estimates again. I was still bewildered from the earlier arbitrary episode. I consulted my colleagues and asked them how they presented their estimates -- they itemised the tasks to be done and tagged a man day count per item, and then summed the items up to show a total man day effort. Their itemised tasks were also provided by either a vendor or another person from the maintenance team, which appeared arbitrary to me too.
I continued to ask how the vendor estimated the man day effort when the information we have is the same. My colleague explained that the vendor probably also estimated in a "plucked from air" fashion, but because it was a quote from a vendor, it was deemed as a "reliable source". I reworked my estimates to look like I have my vendor quote and various other line items, but my mistake was probably not changing the total count. I was told to rework again, on the basis that I was force-justifying my earlier arbitrary estimate. I declined and said that I would stick with my estimate. My boss then said that I would be jeopardising my job and he would not back me up for making arbitrary estimates. I said I was fine if I lose my job because of this. At that point in time, I really could not understand how different my arbitrary estimate was from another person's and it was very stressful for my little mind to derive an estimate that is not arbitrary. Estimates are arbitrary! Hence if I lose my job because I cannot estimate in a non-arbitrary way, I believe that this job is not for me.
That was probably one of my few career ending moves. Fortunately or unfortunately, I am still in this same job and role, but there is a struggle to justify my intuitive responses everyday. My mind is a little creature that is spontaneous and full of surprises. Over time, I curb my intuitive response by not saying anything until I have come up with a logical reasoning sequence. What is more important is that my boss says I do not make sweeping statements as often as before... but there is still room for improvement.
This is one little story. I was working on a cost estimation for a project, and I had to estimate the number of man days it will take to complete the project per year over two years -- it was a long project that could not finish within a year. I was asked how I derived the number of man days for each year and I said that I arbitrarily divided the number of days across the two years. I really didn't know how to answer the question then. I was asked to rework the whole estimate without making arbitrary assumptions.
I consulted my colleagues to learn how they estimated their projects. It still looked arbitrary to me, but I took note of how they made it look otherwise -- they had estimated start dates and end dates and the days correlated with the duration. Few days later, I reworked my number to have a start date and end date, and then I divided the man days based on the number of days between the start date and the end of the year, and start of the year till the end date. "Thanks, that's better."
This is confusing. Wasn't my start date arbitrary too?
Another week went by, and I was asked how I derived my total man day estimate. I replied that it was based on the requirements, scope of work to be done, and my experience with project implementation. I was asked to rework my estimates again. I was still bewildered from the earlier arbitrary episode. I consulted my colleagues and asked them how they presented their estimates -- they itemised the tasks to be done and tagged a man day count per item, and then summed the items up to show a total man day effort. Their itemised tasks were also provided by either a vendor or another person from the maintenance team, which appeared arbitrary to me too.
I continued to ask how the vendor estimated the man day effort when the information we have is the same. My colleague explained that the vendor probably also estimated in a "plucked from air" fashion, but because it was a quote from a vendor, it was deemed as a "reliable source". I reworked my estimates to look like I have my vendor quote and various other line items, but my mistake was probably not changing the total count. I was told to rework again, on the basis that I was force-justifying my earlier arbitrary estimate. I declined and said that I would stick with my estimate. My boss then said that I would be jeopardising my job and he would not back me up for making arbitrary estimates. I said I was fine if I lose my job because of this. At that point in time, I really could not understand how different my arbitrary estimate was from another person's and it was very stressful for my little mind to derive an estimate that is not arbitrary. Estimates are arbitrary! Hence if I lose my job because I cannot estimate in a non-arbitrary way, I believe that this job is not for me.
That was probably one of my few career ending moves. Fortunately or unfortunately, I am still in this same job and role, but there is a struggle to justify my intuitive responses everyday. My mind is a little creature that is spontaneous and full of surprises. Over time, I curb my intuitive response by not saying anything until I have come up with a logical reasoning sequence. What is more important is that my boss says I do not make sweeping statements as often as before... but there is still room for improvement.
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